Know the deal is good before you bid.

The deal is won or lost at the offer

Overpay by $10k because your rehab number was soft, your holding costs were a guess, and your ARV was optimistic — and the profit is gone before you swing a hammer. Most investors find out only at the closing table. This tells you before you bid.

How deal underwriting actually works

Professional flippers don't work backwards from a listing price — they start with what the renovated property will sell for (the after-repair value, or ARV), subtract every cost they can identify, and arrive at the maximum they can offer while still hitting their target return. The 70% rule is the shorthand version: never pay more than 70% of ARV minus rehab costs. It's a blunt instrument — it doesn't account for holding costs, financing charges, or closing fees on both ends — but it sets a ceiling that keeps most deals in safe territory.

The Deal Analyzer goes further. It builds a full profit-and-loss for the deal: acquisition costs (purchase price, closing costs, inspection, appraisal), rehab costs (broken out by category so nothing gets lumped into a single guess), holding costs (insurance, utilities, property tax, loan interest for the months you own it), and sale costs (agent commission, closing, staging, concessions). The net profit that falls out of that model is a far more reliable number than anything the 70% rule alone can give you — and the sensitivity grid stress-tests it against ARV misses and rehab overruns so you see the downside before you commit capital.

Common underwriting mistakes the analyzer prevents

The most expensive mistake new flippers make is underestimating rehab costs. A $5,000 miss on a $30,000 rehab doesn't just cost $5,000 — it also extends the timeline, which increases holding costs and financing charges. The Deal Analyzer forces you to build the rehab number category by category (kitchen, bathrooms, flooring, exterior, mechanicals, permits), which makes it much harder to “round down” the total by accident.

The second mistake is ignoring holding costs. A flip that takes six months instead of three doesn't just delay your payday — it adds three months of insurance, utilities, property tax and loan interest. On a $200,000 property with a hard-money loan at 12%, that's roughly $6,000 in extra interest alone. The model calculates these month by month so the timeline is always reflected in the bottom line.

The third is confusing cash-on-cash return with total return. A deal can show a healthy net profit but a mediocre cash-on-cash if you're tying up a large amount of your own capital. The analyzer reports both — plus annualized ROI, which adjusts for how long your money is locked up — so you can compare deals on a level playing field regardless of leverage or timeline.

What it does

Enter the deal in the blue cells; everything else calculates.

Flip it or hold it — one tool

Built for

• Flippers underwriting a purchase before making an offer
• BRRRR investors weighing refinance-and-hold against a straight flip
• Anyone who wants a stress test before committing capital
• Investors who want their own editable model, not a black-box app

Why a spreadsheet, not $99/month software

Perfect for the first 1–50 deals. No contract, no login, no monthly bill.

Questions

The Renovation Deal Analyzer is a planning and underwriting tool. Outputs are estimates based on the figures you enter and are not financial, investment, or tax advice. Always verify ARV with local comps, obtain real contractor bids, and confirm financing terms before making an offer.